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Qabil Ashirov

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The news from South Asia makes hearts jump into throats. Last night, India fired missiles across the border into Pakistani-controlled territory, leaving several dead — including one child — and many more wounded.

Condemning India’s attack, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry noted that strikes were carried out in Muridke, Sialkot, and Bahawalpur, as well as across the Line of Control in Kotli and Muzaffarabad, in Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

For its part, India’s Defense Ministry confirmed the strikes and stated that at least nine sites were targeted “where terrorist attacks against India have been planned.” The ministry added that the operation was focused, measured, and non-escalatory in nature. No Pakistani military facilities were targeted, it claimed.

However, international media outlets on the ground—along with footage and photos circulated by local residents on social media—lend credibility to claims that India's Defense Ministry is merely paying lip service. The images and videos provide evidence that civilian targets were struck, including mosques and schools.

India's recent aggression brings to mind Iran's missile attacks on Pakistan's Balochistan in January 2024, made under a similar pretext. As is known, Islamabad did not take long to respond at the time, launching retaliatory strikes on Iranian territory shortly thereafter. Given Pakistan's history of swift retaliation, the possibility of another military response raises fears of a full-scale war between the two nuclear powers—sending chills down the spines of many around the world. The news from India confirms that the fears are not vain. Thus, it is reported that India closed its air space for flights and many international airlines cancelled their flights to the country.

Speaking to Azernews, political analyst Imran Khalid, who is in Pakistan now – emphasized that the prevailing mood in Pakistan is a mixture of defiance, sorrow, and national unity in the face of what is widely viewed as unprovoked Indian aggression. He pointed out that the public sentiment is running high, with complete confidence in the capabilities of the Pakistan’s armed forces to deliver an appropriate response to India’s unprovoked aggression - especially in the absence of any credible evidence a linking Pakistan to recent acts of terrorism in India.

“The public response is being shaped by both the tragic human cost of the strikes - 26 civilians killed and dozens wounded - and a sense of national vindication following the downing of five Indian jets. Government statements, particularly from Information Minister Attaullah Tarar and the military’s ISPR, have sought to galvanize public morale, emphasizing Pakistan's swift and precise retaliation as evidence of military competence and strategic resolve. Amid the heightened tensions, schools have been closed and flights grounded, but there is little indication of panic - only steely resolve. Public discourse, amplified by state media, centers around honor, defense of sovereignty, and the unjust targeting of civilians, including children and mosques. The collective sentiment appears to be one of wounded pride channeled into resolute patriotism, with calls for continued vigilance against future provocations,” he added.

Imran Khalid is sure that India’s aggressive posture appears deeply intertwined with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s domestic political calculus. He reminded that historically, Modi has not shied away from invoking cross-border tensions to galvanize nationalist sentiment during election cycles - most notably in the aftermath of the Pulwama-Balakot episode in 2019.

“Modi’s ongoing campaign in Bihar is no exception. With rising discontent over economic stagnation, unemployment, and communal tensions, Modi’s government seems to be returning to a well-worn playbook: manufacturing external threats to unify the electorate under the banner of national security. The April 22 attack in Pahalgam, which killed 26 tourists, provided a pretext for “Operation Sindoor,” launched without a credible investigation. By opting for high-visibility strikes and deploying newly acquired Rafale jets, Modi has signaled strength domestically while sidestepping accountability for intelligence lapses. The narrative of retaliatory justice plays well to his base, distracting from governance shortcomings and reframing the election as a referendum on patriotic resolve. Pakistan’s calls for a neutral probe into the Pahalgam incident were ignored, underscoring India’s prioritization of optics over diplomacy. This strategy, however, carries significant regional risks, as evidenced by the swift escalation and Pakistan’s equally forceful response,” Pakistani political analyst said.

As for the full-scale war between the two nuclear power, Imran Khalid opined that the immediate future hinges precariously on whether New Delhi and Islamabad can de-escalate through diplomatic backchannels or if nationalist fervor overrides strategic caution. With Pakistan claiming the downing of five Indian jets and India remaining publicly silent on the losses, both countries now stand at a dangerous inflection point.

“However, the Modi administration, mid-campaign and under domestic pressure, may find it politically unpalatable to back down without some symbolic restitution. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s leadership, having scored a tactical military success, is signaling readiness for further action if provoked again. The summoning of Pakistan’s National Security Committee and heightened alert across civilian sectors point to the seriousness of the moment. International actors -including the UN, China, and even the U.S. - are calling for restraint. In the best-case scenario, shuttle diplomacy or third-party mediation could forestall a deeper conflict. But with both nuclear-armed neighbors entrenched in nationalist narratives and public opinion inflamed, the risk of further escalation cannot be dismissed. A misstep - accidental or deliberate - could shift this crisis into far graver territory,” Imran Khalid concluded.